The $140 billion Budget bomb set to haunt future governments, as spending on NDIS, aged care and defence to explode

Muhammad Jawad
New Update

Upcoming Intergenerational Fiscal Quandaries: Australia 2063


Projections Paint a Daunting Picture

The forthcoming 2023 Intergenerational report discloses perturbing predictions with regard to governmental expenditure on sectors including health, the NDIS (National Disability Insurance Scheme), aged care, defence, and interest payments. The impending burden on the state coffers is projected to inflate beyond an astronomical $140 billion annually over the course of the next four decades.

Challenges for Future Governments


With aging demographics, escalating demand for government services, and augmenting defence commitments, the spending could potentially reach an alarming 14.4 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 40 years. Anticipated future governmental spending could inflate from its present composition of a third to constitute half of all state expenditure by 2063.

Ageing and Advancements

Australia's greying population is singled out as the main culprit behind this forecasted rise in expenditures. Health and aged care services for an increasing demographic segment will evidently apply enormous pressure on state finances. The report highlights that, "The projected growth in spending reflects growing cost pressures and demand for public services as the population ages as well as improvements in the quality of care, including from new health technologies and treatments." Close to 40 percent of the increase in government spending over the next 40 years is projected to be fueled solely by demographic ageing.


NDIS Under Scrutiny

While repeated cost blowouts of the NDIS have been under the magnifying lens, the report reveals that total health-related costs will outweigh spending on the NDIS, aged care, and interest payments in relation to GDP proportions. Additionally, government debt, which swelled during the pandemic-induced turbulence, is anticipated to inflate twice over from 0.7 percent of GDP to 1.4 percent of GDP by 2063-64.

Inherited Responsibilities


In wake of the revelation of the aforementioned figures, the current government was quick to deflect the credit for the accelerating debt to the previous coalition. Measures like fiscal management reforms aimed at equitable distribution of state finances, alongside strategies to ensure the security of indispensable services in the future, have been stressed upon.

The Road to Recovery

"In little over 12 months in government, the Albanese government has overseen the biggest budget turnaround in Australian history," states the treasurer. With the churning of such figures, the implications are omnipresent. The consequence of choices made today will clearly echo far into the future, their profound impact unspooling over generations to come. As the nation braces itself for challenging times, the strategies implemented will have far-reaching repercussions on both the economy as well as Australia's social fabric.