The recent results of the Rajasthan elections have brought prominent political dynamics to the fore. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has successfully retained its stronghold in the Mewar and Hadoti regions, while dramatically enhancing its performance in the Marwar region and the city of Jaipur. The BJP, despite its established presence in Hadoti and Mewar, saw an increase in its vote share from 38.77% in 2018 to 41.9%. The Congress party's share also witnessed a slight rise, reaching 39.53%.
The Shift in Gurjar Community Votes
A significant factor contributing to the BJP's electoral success has been the shift in Gurjar community votes, which were divided between the BJP and candidates associated with Congress leader Sachin Pilot. The BJP was able to forge new alliances and secure support from traditionally non-aligned communities, leading to its victory.
BJP's Rise in Eastern Rajasthan
The BJP has also managed to gather support from the SC and Meena communities in eastern Rajasthan, winning 19 seats compared to just one in the 2018 elections. The party's success in Jaipur has been especially notable, with its tally doubling from six to 12 seats. Further, the BJP swept all seven seats in the Bikaner district, signifying its growing popularity in the region.
Congress Retains Jat Vote
However, the Congress party has been able to maintain a strong Jat vote, particularly in Hanumangarh and Ganganagar districts, as well as the Shekhawati region. Despite the BJP's gains, the Congress's resilience in these areas has been indicative of the party's enduring support base.
Implications of BJP's Victory
The BJP's strategic candidate selection and social engineering strategies have been credited for their electoral victories. Analysts have noted that while the Gurjar vote was split, the BJP managed to secure a significant portion of the Meena and SC votes, largely owing to the influence of BJP leader Kirori Meena. In contrast, Congress was unable to secure the Mali vote as anticipated. Anti-incumbency sentiments against Congress MLAs and ministers are also believed to have contributed to the party's loss in certain regions.