The 2024 Indonesian presidential election is shaping up to be a tight race, with Prabowo Subianto and Anies Baswedan vying for voter support in key regions such as Bandung Raya, West and East Parahyangan, and the Megapolitan area. Djayadi Hanan, the Executive Director of the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), shared this during an online event, 'Gelora Talks.'
Electability Mapping in West Java
Djayadi unveiled the current snapshot of electability for each presidential-vice presidential pair in West Java. The Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka ticket is taking the lead, followed closely by the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD pairings. Interestingly, while Prabowo's electability is on the rise, Ganjar's is waning, and Anies's is growing, albeit not significantly.
Regional Strengths and Weaknesses
Anies's strength lies in the Megapolitan area, including Jakarta's buffer zones like Bekasi and Depok, thanks to the backing of parties such as the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS). Conversely, Prabowo is in the lead in Bandung Raya and the Parahyangan regions. A close contest is also expected in areas like Cirebon, Indramayu, and Pangandaran, traditionally dominated by the PDI-P party.
Prabowo's Voter Retention
Prabowo has managed to retain over 50% of his voters from the 2019 election and even gained votes in areas traditionally dominated by PDI-P. The political campaign and competition is set to heat up with just two months remaining for the election.
The former general, Prabowo, who has twice lost the presidential elections to President Joko Widodo, has successfully repositioned himself as a patriot ready to serve his people. The shift in strategy and style is believed to be in response to Jokowi's continued popularity and the limitations it has placed on national politicians.