Endorsements Play a Significant Role in Texas Republican Primary: Survey

Endorsements from former President Donald Trump bear significant weight with Texas Republican primary voters, according to a survey conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. The survey reveals that a candidate backed by Trump is likely to garner 70% more support, highlighting the profound influence of the former president on the party's primary voters. Governor Greg Abbott and Senator Ted Cruz, two prominent figures in the Texas political landscape, also hold sway over voter decisions with 64% and 61% of voters respectively more inclined to support candidates they endorse.

Key Debates Shape Voter Decisions

The study further indicates that voters' decisions are influenced by key debates such as border security, school vouchers, and the potential impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton. An overwhelming majority of voters support incumbents who voted to criminalize unauthorized immigration and to ban transgender girls from girls' sports teams. However, views on school voucher opposition and support for Paxton's impeachment appear to be more divided among voters, raising questions about the potential impact of these issues on the upcoming primaries.

Influence of Additional Endorsements

Other political figures like House Speaker Dade Phelan, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, and Attorney General Paxton also wield varying degrees of influence over voters, with their endorsements carrying different weights. The ruling by the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals on prosecuting voter fraud is another factor that could sway voter decisions in the upcoming primaries.

Favorability Ratings and Voter Knowledge

Despite the turbulent political landscape, favorability ratings for Trump, Abbott, and Cruz remain high among GOP primary voters, demonstrating their continued relevance and influence within the party. However, the survey also revealed that knowledge of conservative donors Tim Dunn and Farris Wilks is surprisingly low among the voters, suggesting that their influence may not be as pronounced.

The survey, conducted from January 11 to 24, 2024, included 1,500 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.