Monday sets the stage for Banco de Portugal to release the latest figures on interest rates, loan and deposit amounts, and public debt. Concurrently, markets keenly anticipate European indicators and speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) members, including the formidable Christine Lagarde. The financial landscape is set for a seismic shift, with implications that could echo across the globe.
An Uplift in Interest Rates
Interest rates for new fixed deposits from individuals witnessed an uptick from 1.69% in July to 1.81% in August, marking the highest since April 2014. This ascendancy in rates could stimulate savings, while potentially impacting borrowing costs. The interplay of these dynamics within the financial sector could shape the monetary narrative in the days to come.
A Downward Trend in Public Debt
Meanwhile, public debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) decreased to 107.5% in the third quarter, indicating a 2.6 percentage point reduction from the previous quarter. This decrease brings Portugal closer to the government's targets, signaling a step towards healthier fiscal management and resilience.
Industrial Production and Unemployment Figures
In the industrial sector, Portugal's production figures for October will be unveiled, following a notable homologous variation decrease in September. This decrease, largely due to contraction in investment and energy, has potential ramifications for the manufacturing sector and the broader economy. On the European front, Germany prepares to report its trade balance with import and export figures for October, while Spain braces to release its unemployment rate for November.
ECB Leaders on the Move
The ECB President Christine Lagarde is set to make her presence felt at the Academy of Moral and Political Sciences in Paris. Concurrently, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos will inaugurate the "Banking in Transformation" conference in Madrid, whilst ECB Supervisory Board Vice President Frank Elderson will participate in several panels at COP28 in Dubai. Their insights and perspectives are set to shape the discourse on the future of banking and finance.